Why a China Trade Deal Will Still Happen

China

Despite the news and political rhetoric in recent weeks, a trade deal between the U.S. and China is still likely to happen. Even President Trump noted this week that communications with China are “very good,” and that “we have a dialogue going. It will always continue.”

Positive words from the President helped the stock market to recover some of its recent losses. There could be even better news in the coming months, considering that there are some particularly good reasons why a deal must happen.

Here are the top three reasons why Trump will push hard to strike a long-term deal.

  1. A Deal is Needed for Re-election

President Trump made the China trade relationship a central part of his run for office. So far, the President has managed to sustain and strengthen the economic growth that started with the last administration, and his policies have contributed to a continued rally in the stock market. This has boosted the wealth of millions of voters.

The stock market doesn’t like trade uncertainty, as we’ve seen clearly in recent days. Not only does a deal need to happen to protect the market, it’s also something that the President promised to achieve in his first term.

  1. Tariffs Could Cause Inflation

Inflation has been almost non-existent over the last year, and very mild during the current period of economic expansion. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), a measure used by the Federal Reserve to gauge the economy, has stayed solid.

Tariffs will likely force up the price of consumer goods, with many of America’s favorite products being manufactured in China. Continued tariff hikes would threaten pricing and could lead to inflation. This is something that the President will try to avoid.

  1. China Needs the U.S. for Its Economy

Nobody should ignore the fact that the Chinese economy relies on trade partners like the U.S.

Most of China’s exports are sent to North American markets, and this is something that the ruling party will not take lightly. While China can likely endure tariffs and even shoulder some of the costs directly, playing hardball is not a sound long-term strategy, especially while their internal economy is slowing.

Put simply, China needs to trade with America if it wants to continue to grow.

China Stocks Look to Be Recovering This Week

Following Trump’s positive comments, stocks were up on Tuesday, helping to offset the losses from the last seven days of trading. Asian markets were strong on Wednesday, showing that there’s still confidence that the world’s largest trading nations will come to agreeable terms.

 

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The reports, research and newsletter are based on current and historical market data, as well as publicly available financial data.They are intended to be a starting point for investors. They do not provide every material fact about a company or industry, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell. The writers and the company make no warranties or representations as to the accuracy of these reports.   You should NOT rely solely upon the information or opinions read in the content. Rather, you should use the content as a starting point for doing independent research on the independent analysis and trading methods in the content. The content is impersonal and does not provide individualized advice or recommendations for any specific reader or individual portfolio. By accessing this website you have agreed to our disclaimers and privacy policy.

 

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