As the Coronavirus Pandemic continues to disrupt the world economy, leading analysts have warned that the recovery will be slow and uneven.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for next year, indicating that shrinkage in economic activity could increase poverty and have long-lasting effects.

IMF Blog Post Sends Warning

In a blog post this week, Gita Gopinath, the Chief Economist of the IMF, said that “The ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain.” Gopinath said that policy support is needed at the highest level and that it should not be prematurely withdrawn.

Gopinath’s comments will resonate with economists in America. The Federal Reserve said this month that more government stimulus would be needed to aid the United States as it comes back from the extensive damage caused by the Coronavirus Pandemic.

Those on low incomes, youth workers, and women are likely to see the biggest impact. Analysts have found that those with less money are seeing decreased wealth. Many could fall into poverty and “extreme deprivation” this year.

The global economy expanded by 3.2% in January of 2020, before falling by -3.3% in April and -5.2% in June. In the quarter ending this October, the global economy is expected to fall another -4.4% year-over-year.

China is Breaking the Trend

Jobs in America are slowly coming back, despite the nation having the most deaths from the Coronavirus as a percentage of the population. Unemployment is higher than it was at the beginning of the pandemic, putting the figure at its worst-ever during a Presidential Election.

China is the only nation that is offsetting the trend. Its economic output is on track to grow compared to 2019. Extreme lockdown measures and a swift restart to the manufacturing economy have helped China to overtake the rest of the world, despite it being the first nation to face the Coronavirus.

The Election Will be Crucial to America’s Recovery

Both Democratic nominee Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump have promised to restore jobs and bring America out of its worst economic disaster in living memory. Both have been light on details and high on rhetoric, leaving many Americans to wonder about the specifics of an economic recovery.

Government stimulus is likely, but this won’t come until after the election next month. The United States, like many nations around the world, will be impacted by the uncertainty in global trade and declining consumer spending.